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Colombian Outsider De la Espriella Stuns Polls with Preliminary Lead

Anti-establishment candidate shakes up presidential race

James Whitfield||Source: Al Jazeera
Colombian Outsider De la Espriella Stuns Polls with Preliminary Lead
Photo by Laura Rincón on Pexels

BOGOTÁ — The armored vehicle rolled through the gritty streets of Barranquilla, its tinted windows hiding a man who just might be Colombia's next president. Inside sat Abelardo de la Espriella, a political novice who has turned the country's establishment on its head. With 40% of precincts reporting, De la Espriella holds a narrow lead over his closest rival, a career politician from the traditional Conservative Party.

De la Espriella, a former businessman and media personality, has run a campaign built on rage. Rage at corruption. Rage at inequality. Rage at a political class that has governed for decades while millions of Colombians struggle. “They've stolen from us long enough,” he told a roaring crowd last week in Medellín. “Now it's our turn to take back what's ours.”

An Earthquake in Colombian Politics

For months, pollsters dismissed De la Espriella as a fringe candidate. They said he'd fizzle out. But the numbers tell a different story. With 38.7% of the vote counted, De la Espriella sits at 34.2%, edging out Conservative candidate María del Pilar Rojas, who trails at 31.5%. The gap is small, but the implication is enormous: Colombia's two-party system, which has rotated power between Liberals and Conservatives since the 19th century, may be crumbling.

“This is not just a protest vote,” said political analyst Lucía Moreno. “It's a repudiation of an entire system. People are tired of promises that get broken the day after elections.”

But De la Espriella's rise is also deeply polarizing. Opponents paint him as a dangerous populist, likening him to Venezuela's Hugo Chávez or Brazil's Jair Bolsonaro. “He's a threat to our democracy,” said Rojas at a press conference in Bogotá. “His policies are reckless. He wants to dismantle institutions that have kept this country stable.”

A Campaign Fueled by Social Media

De la Espriella's success owes much to a savvy social media operation. His team pumps out dozens of TikTok videos daily, many featuring the candidate in casual settings—eating arepas at a street stall, playing soccer with kids, or cursing at bureaucrats. It's raw, unfiltered, and wildly effective among young voters, a demographic that normally stays home on election day.

“He's the only one who talks like us,” said 22-year-old university student Camila Torres as she waited to vote in Bogotá. “They're all the same—suits and ties, empty words. He actually says what he thinks.”

Critics argue that what he thinks is often dangerous. De la Espriella has proposed slashing regulations on mining, withdrawing from the Paris climate accords, and expanding military powers to fight crime. “It's the language of strongmen,” wrote columnist Andrea López in El Tiempo. “He speaks the words of a savior, but his playbook is straight out of the authoritarian handbook.”

What Happens Next?

If De la Espriella holds his lead, he would face a runoff election in August against the second-place candidate. The stakes could not be higher. Colombia is grappling with rising inflation, a surge in violence from armed groups, and a fragile peace process that many see as stalled.

“We're watching a realignment,” said Moreno. “The old coalitions are breaking apart. If De la Espriella wins, it will signal a shift not just for Colombia, but for all of Latin America.”

Meanwhile, De la Espriella plans to ride through the night, visiting polling stations across the coast. His campaign manager, a 30-year-old former YouTuber, told reporters they feel “cautiously optimistic.” That may be an understatement. In the working-class neighborhoods of Barranquilla, where the armored vehicle draws crowds, the mood is electric. A man holding a homemade sign summed it up in three words: “Finally, one of us.”

“They've stolen from us long enough. Now it's our turn to take back what's ours.” — Abelardo de la Espriella

Whether that message propels him to the presidency remains to be seen. But one thing is certain: Colombian politics will never be the same.

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