Abiy Ahmed just proved he can still win elections. But the real question — the one haunting Ethiopia right now — is whether he can still govern.
The Nobel Peace Prize winner's Prosperity Party swept Sunday's vote, retaining a massive parliamentary majority. Official results show they took nearly 80% of seats, though opposition parties cried foul long before the first ballot was counted. Sound familiar? It should. Because five years after Abiy burst onto the world stage as Africa's great reformer, the guy who ended a 20-year war with Eritrea and promised democracy is now presiding over a nation that's fracturing at the seams.
The Election That Nobody Believed In
Let's be clear: this wasn't a free and fair contest by any stretch. Nine opposition parties boycotted the polls, citing widespread arrests, media shutdowns, and a government that treats dissent like treason. In Tigray — the northern region that fought a brutal two-year war against Abiy's forces — voting barely happened. In Oromia, the country's largest region, low turnout told its own story. When your biggest provinces either sit out or get suppressed, a landslide victory starts to look hollow.
Abiy's supporters will point to the numbers. They'll say the people have spoken. But anyone who's followed Ethiopia knows the playbook: crush the opposition, control the narrative, call it democracy. It's worked before. It might work again. But it won't solve the rot underneath.
"Winning an election isn't the same as winning legitimacy. Abiy has the votes. What he doesn't have is trust."
Friends Now, Enemies Next Door
Abiy's biggest foreign policy headache? The neighbors he supposedly made peace with. Eritrea, once his partner in the Nobel deal, has reverted to form — mass conscription, closed borders, and a leader, Isaias Afwerki, who views Abiy with suspicion. Sudan is in chaos, its army fighting a paramilitary force along Ethiopia's western flank. Egypt is still furious over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. And Somalia? Ethiopia's troops are still there, fighting an insurgency that won't die.
Meanwhile, the old war with Eritrea never truly ended. Tigrayan forces, battered but not broken, have regrouped. The 2022 peace deal was a ceasefire, not a solution. No one trusts it. No one trusts each other. And Abiy, who once spoke of a new era of African cooperation, now finds himself surrounded by enemies he helped create.
The Economy Is Bleeding
Here's the wild part: Ethiopia's economy is on its knees, and Abiy still won. Inflation is running at 30%. Foreign currency is so scarce that businesses can't import basic goods. The World Bank recently warned that 20 million Ethiopians face severe hunger. Yet the Prosperity Party's message of "development" somehow resonated. How? Because there's no real alternative. The opposition is either in jail, in exile, or too fractured to mount a campaign. When your only choice is between the devil you know and a void, the devil wins every time.
But that mandate won't pay the bills. Abiy's grand infrastructure projects — roads, railways, the dam — are either stalled or bleeding cash. Investors who once flocked to Addis Ababa are fleeing. The Chinese loans that financed the boom are coming due. And the IMF? It's demanding reforms that would hurt the very voters who just re-elected him. Good luck selling austerity to a population that can't afford bread.
What Comes Next?
Sunday's vote wasn't a solution. It was a holding pattern. Abiy has four more years to prove he can do what he promised: unite Ethiopia, build its economy, and keep the peace. The odds are stacked against him. The security situation is deteriorating, with ethnic violence flaring in Amhara, Oromia, and Benishangul-Gumuz. The political space is shrinking. And the international community, once eager to celebrate a success story, is starting to ask harder questions.
Here's the uncomfortable truth: Abiy Ahmed won the election. But he's losing the country. The Nobel Peace Prize doesn't mean anything when your people are starving and your neighbors are sharpening knives. Ethiopia is a powder keg, and the man with the match just got handed four more years to keep it from exploding. I wouldn't bet on his luck holding out.
