Ethiopia's government insists it's not being dragged into war. That's rich. Because when you arm regional militias, bomb neighboring states, and suppress dissent at home, you're not being dragged anywhere — you're sprinting headlong into conflict, dragging the rest of the Horn of Africa with you.
This week, top officials Redwan Hussein and Getachew Reda penned an op-ed claiming Ethiopia is a victim of foreign conspiracies and internal provocateurs. They argue that the federal government is being forced into a corner, that peace is the priority. But the facts on the ground tell a different story — one of calculated escalation and blame-shifting.
The Op-Ed That Smells Like Propaganda
The article, published in a major international outlet, reads like a masterclass in deflection. Hussein and Reda paint Ethiopia as a reluctant giant, pushed toward conflict by unnamed external actors and rebellious regions. They conveniently omit that the Tigray conflict, which killed hundreds of thousands, was sparked by a federal offensive. They forget that the current tensions in Amhara and Oromia are fueled by government crackdowns and a refusal to share power.
Let's call this what it is: an attempt to gaslight the international community into believing Ethiopia is the victim, not the aggressor.
“When you arm regional militias, bomb neighboring states, and suppress dissent at home, you're not being dragged anywhere — you're sprinting headlong into conflict.”
The Real Drivers of Conflict
Ethiopia's instability isn't a mystery. The government's centralization of power, its refusal to implement a genuine federal system, and its heavy-handed military responses have alienated communities from Tigray to Oromia. The war in Tigray may have formally ended, but the underlying grievances haven't. Meanwhile, the Amhara region is boiling over after the government dissolved the regional special forces. And in Oromia, the Oromo Liberation Army continues to fight — not because they want war, but because dialogue has been met with bullets.
Then there's the external dimension. Ethiopia's dispute with Egypt and Sudan over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has raised temperatures. The government has threatened to “break bones” — a phrase that sounds less like diplomacy and more like a prelude to war. But Hussein and Reda would have you believe that any talk of war is a foreign fabrication.
Blame the Neighbors, Blame the Rebels — Never Blame Yourselves
The op-ed's core argument is that Ethiopia is being dragged into war by “spoilers” — a catch-all term for anyone opposing the government. Eritrea is accused of meddling. Egypt is accused of funding rebels. Even Sudan gets a nod. But nowhere do the authors acknowledge that the Ethiopian government's own actions have created these fault lines.
This is a classic authoritarian playbook: when you're losing at home, blame the foreign bogeyman. It's the same tactic used by regimes from Damascus to Pyongyang. And it works — for a while. But eventually, the propaganda wears thin, and the world sees through the smokescreen.
What Peace Actually Looks Like
If Ethiopia truly wanted peace, it would stop arresting journalists and opposition figures. It would engage in genuine political dialogue instead of military offensives. It would allow humanitarian access to conflict zones without bureaucratic hurdles. It would stop treating the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission as a nuisance and start acting on its recommendations.
None of that is happening. Instead, we see a government that talks peace while preparing for war. The military budget is up. Troops are being deployed to multiple fronts. And the rhetoric is increasingly bellicose.
“If Ethiopia truly wanted peace, it would stop arresting journalists and opposition figures. None of that is happening.”
The Danger of Denial
The biggest risk here isn't just that Ethiopia might slide into another war — it's that the international community might believe the denials. If donors and diplomats accept the narrative that Ethiopia is being forced into conflict, they'll be less likely to apply pressure for reform. They'll keep sending aid, keep pretending that stability is around the corner, keep funding a government that is actively stoking the fires.
Meanwhile, ordinary Ethiopians will pay the price. They always do. They'll be conscripted, displaced, and killed — all while their leaders insist they never wanted this.
So no, Ethiopia isn't being dragged into war. It's marching into one, eyes wide open, pointing fingers at everyone but itself. And until the world stops buying the propaganda, the cycle of violence will continue.
