Keir Starmer is about to do what his critics have demanded for months: walk away. The UK Prime Minister is expected to announce his resignation later today, ending a tenure that once promised stability but delivered only drift.
The numbers turned toxic
Starmer's approval rating has been in freefall since January. A YouGov poll published last week put Labour at 29% — trailing the Conservatives for the first time in three years. In the Red Wall seats that Labour clawed back in 2024, the story is worse: down 14 points in Stoke, 11 in Sunderland. Voters who gave Starmer a chance are now abandoning him.
“He never gave us a reason to believe. Just more of the same, but with a different tie.” — Former Labour voter, Sheffield
The party's internal polling, leaked to the BBC on Sunday, showed that 68% of Labour members want him gone. That's not a whisper — that's a howl.
The straw that broke
The immediate trigger? A backbench revolt over the government's new welfare bill. More than 40 Labour MPs threatened to vote against it, forcing Starmer to pull the legislation last week. For a prime minister who sold himself as a unifier, losing control of his own party was the final nail.
But the rot runs deeper. The NHS waiting lists haven't budged. The economy grew at 0.3% last quarter — barely above stagnation. And the small boats crossing the Channel? Up 22% from last year. Starmer promised competence. He delivered inertia.
Who's next?
The jockeying has already begun. Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, is the frontrunner — but she's tainted by the same economic record. Angela Rayner, the Deputy PM, has the union backing but alarms moderate MPs. Wes Streeting, the Health Secretary, is the wild card: popular with the public, but untested in a leadership race.
Whoever takes over inherits a party that's bleeding support to Reform UK on the right and the Greens on the left. The center doesn't hold when the center doesn't deliver.
The Tory question
Opposition leader James Cleverly wasted no time. “Labour promised change. They delivered chaos. Now even their own leader can't stand it,” he said this morning. The Conservatives are 4 points ahead in the averages — not a landslide, but a lead that would deliver a hung parliament with the Tories as the largest party.
Starmer's resignation doesn't trigger an automatic election. But if Labour's next leader can't turn things around quickly, the pressure for a snap vote will become irresistible.
What Starmer leaves behind
He came to power on a wave of relief — the antidote to Johnson's chaos, Truss's crash, Sunak's drift. He promised a government of service, of quiet competence. But quiet competence isn't enough when the bills are rising, the trains aren't running, and the waiting lists stretch into years.
Starmer will say in his resignation speech that he's proud of the stability he restored. And it's true: the UK under him wasn't a circus. But governing isn't just about not being a disaster. It's about making things better. And on that score, Starmer failed.
He'll be remembered as the prime minister who couldn't — or wouldn't — offer a vision. The man who managed decline rather than reversing it. The Labour leader who won power and then lost the plot.
Goodbye, Sir Keir. You won't be missed — because too few will notice you've gone.
