Donald Trump doesn't trust oil companies. And on Tuesday, he made sure they knew it.
“The price of crude is down big—way down—and yet you still see these prices at the pump,” the president told reporters in the Oval Office. “They're gouging us. They've been gouging for years.”
Trump's outburst came as West Texas Intermediate crude extended its decline, dropping another 2% to settle at $68.43 a barrel—its lowest point in four months. But at the pump, the national average for regular gasoline still hovered near $3.85 a gallon, down only a dime from a week ago.
That gap is exactly what the president is latching onto.
A familiar rant with fresh fuel
Trump's accusations of price gouging are nothing new. He's been hammering oil executives since his first term, threatening antitrust actions and calling for investigations. But this time, the landscape is different. Crude has fallen more than 15% from its April highs, thanks to a global economic slowdown and surprise production increases from OPEC+ members breaking their own quotas. Theoretically, that should mean cheaper gas. Practically, it hasn't.
“Refiners are making a killing,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital. “They're not passing on the crude savings because they can get away with it. Demand is still strong, and there's limited refining capacity. It's a perfect storm for margins.”
Indeed, the crack spread—the difference between crude oil prices and wholesale gasoline prices—has widened to over $30 a barrel, more than double its historical average. That's pure profit for refiners, and it's exactly the kind of number that gets a president's attention.
The politics of pain at the pump
For Trump, who is eyeing a potential return to the White House in 2028, high gas prices are more than an economic issue—they're a political liability. His base feels the pinch every time they fill up their trucks and SUVs. And while inflation has cooled overall, the memory of $5 gas in 2022 still stings.
“He needs to show he's fighting for them,” said political strategist Mary Anne Marsh. “Attacking oil companies is a populist move that plays well in the Rust Belt and the Sun Belt. It distracts from the fact that his own energy policies haven't delivered the price relief he promised.”
Trump's energy platform has always been “drill, baby, drill.” He opened up federal lands and waters to production, approved the Keystone XL pipeline—though it was later canceled—and slashed regulations. But domestic production, while record-high, hasn't translated into lower prices. The reason is simple: oil is a global commodity. American producers sell into the world market, and prices are set by global supply and demand, not local politics.
“The president doesn't control gasoline prices. He can jawbone all he wants, but the market moves on its own logic.” — Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS
What the oil companies say
The American Petroleum Institute pushed back on Tuesday, arguing that gasoline prices are driven by complex factors including crude costs, refining margins, distribution, and taxes. In a statement, API President Mike Sommers said: “Accusations of gouging are baseless. The oil and gas industry operates in a competitive global market with thin margins on the production side. Refining margins have been volatile, but they're not evidence of collusion.”
Some analysts agree. “The refineries are running at near capacity,” said Kilduff. “If you want to blame anyone, blame the underinvestment in refining capacity over the past decade. Environmental regulations and the shift to renewables have made it hard to build new refineries. That's a structural problem, not price gouging.”
Still, the optics are bad. ExxonMobil and Chevron both reported record profits in 2023 and 2024, even as consumers struggled with higher living costs. The disconnect between corporate earnings and household budgets fuels public anger—and Trump is tapping into it.
The real fix? Maybe nothing
There's little Trump can actually do to force prices down. The White House has considered a federal gas-tax holiday, but that would require congressional approval and isn't likely to pass. Releasing more oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is an option, but the SPR is at its lowest level in decades after the Biden administration's releases. And jawboning—while politically useful—rarely moves markets.
“Talk is cheap,” said Kloza. “The president can tweet and give press conferences, but until crude really collapses or demand drops, gas prices are going to stay sticky.”
Some market watchers expect crude to fall further. A global economic slowdown, particularly in China and Europe, is dampening demand. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is reportedly considering an emergency meeting to address the price decline, but internal divisions are deep. Saudi Arabia wants to cut production; other members want to pump as much as possible.
For now, Trump's pressure campaign may be more about shaping the narrative than changing prices. And in the court of public opinion, he's winning—for the moment.
“He's giving people someone to blame. That's powerful.” — Mary Anne Marsh, Democratic strategist
As summer driving season approaches, all eyes are on the pump. If prices don't come down soon, Trump's attacks will only intensify. And if they do? He'll claim credit. Either way, he's not letting go of this fight.
