Elon Musk has done it again. SpaceX, the rocket company that made Mars seem like a Tuesday commute, is finally seeing short sellers sniff around. About 40 million shares are sold short—roughly 5% to 7% of the float, according to S3 Partners. That’s real money. Real bets that the empire might wobble.
But here’s the thing: most traders still won’t touch this stock with a ten-foot pole. Why? Because betting against Musk has historically been a bloodbath. Ask the Tesla shorts who got steamrolled. Ask anyone who thought he’d crater Twitter. The man has nine lives and a rocket to spare.
The Numbers Game
Forty million shares sounds big. In absolute terms, it is. The short interest in SpaceX is climbing, and it’s drawing attention. But relative to the total available shares—the float—it’s modest. Typical short interest for a volatile stock can hit 15% or 20%. SpaceX is barely halfway there.
Why the hesitation? Partly it’s structure. SpaceX isn’t listed on a public exchange. Trading happens on secondary markets, and those are murky waters. The shares that change hands are a sliver of the total valuation, which S3 pegs at around $180 billion. That’s a lot of zeroes for a company that’s still losing money on Starlink and has government contracts that could vanish with a change in administration.
“Short sellers are circling, but they’re not diving in. The fear of Musk is real.”
But there’s another factor: fear. Pure, unadulterated fear of Elon Musk. The guy has a cult following. He’s the closest thing to a real-life Tony Stark, and he’s proven time and again that he can pull rabbits out of hats—or rockets out of thin air. Shorting him feels like standing in front of a freight train.
Why Now?
The short interest isn’t random. It’s happening because SpaceX’s valuation has ballooned. Private market trades have pushed it to nosebleed levels. Investors are asking: Is this still a growth story, or is it a bubble? Starlink, the satellite internet arm, is burning cash faster than a Falcon 9 on launch day. The Starship program is years behind schedule. And Musk’s attention is split between Tesla, X (formerly Twitter), and whatever new chaos he’s cooking up.
Short sellers see cracks. They see a company that relies on government contracts and Musk’s personal brand. If either wobbles, the stock could tumble. But they also know that Musk thrives on adversity. He’s been counted out more times than a boxer with a glass jaw, and he keeps getting up.
The Musk Factor
Let’s be honest: Musk is the wild card. Betting against him isn’t just a financial decision; it’s an existential one. Short sellers who’ve been burned before remember the Tesla rally of 2020. They remember the Gamestop saga. They know that Musk can tweet, and the market moves. He’s unpredictable, and that’s terrifying for anyone who likes a clean short thesis.
SpaceX is his baby. He owns a controlling stake. He calls the shots. If he decides to take the company private—again—or spin off Starlink, the short thesis evaporates. He can change the rules mid-game, and there’s nothing shorts can do about it.
So the short interest is a toe in the water. A test. But the real action is in the fear. The shorts are there, but they’re not piling on. They’re watching. Waiting. And probably hoping that Musk gets distracted by his next shiny object.
The Bottom Line
SpaceX is a bet on the future. Short sellers are betting that the future is overpriced. But they’re not betting against Musk. Not yet. That would require a courage—or a stupidity—that most traders don’t have.
Forty million shares short. It’s a number. But it’s not a verdict. The real story is the 95% of shares that aren’t short. The holders who believe in the dream. Or are too scared to sell.
Either way, Musk wins. For now.
