ADEL, Iowa — The combine sits idle in Joe Hendrickson's shed, dust settling on a machine that cost him $400,000. He bought it on credit in 2017, back when President Trump was tweeting about a 'golden age' for agriculture. "Golden?" Hendrickson spits the word like it's a seed stuck in his teeth. "My net income last year was less than what I spent on diesel."
Three years into Trump's second term, the promised golden age hasn't arrived. Instead, Iowa farmers are trapped in a vise of tariffs, a grinding war with Iran, and a trade war that's torched their export markets. The White House keeps talking about winning, but out here in the heartland, the math doesn't add up.
The Tariff Tax Nobody Voted For
Trump's trade war with China cost American farmers $27 billion in lost exports between 2018 and 2020. He compensated with bailouts — $23 billion in direct payments — but that was a Band-Aid on a severed artery. Now, new tariffs on steel, aluminum, and farm machinery have jacked up input costs. Fertilizer prices are up 40%. Tractors cost 18% more. And China still isn't buying soybeans at pre-war levels.
"We're paying for tariffs on both ends," says Sarah Koenig, who runs a 500-acre corn and soybean operation near Ames. "When we sell, our prices are depressed. When we buy, everything costs more. The only people winning are the guys in D.C. writing checks."
The bailouts kept us alive, but they didn't let us live.
The math is brutal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects net farm income will fall 22% this year, to $86 billion. That's down from a peak of $133 billion in 2013. Adjusted for inflation, it's the lowest since the farm crisis of the 1980s.
War and the Price of Soybeans
Then there's Iran. The war that Trump promised would be short and decisive is now in its second year. The conflict has spooked global markets, disrupted shipping in the Persian Gulf, and sent oil prices on a roller coaster. But the collateral damage to agriculture is less obvious.
Iowa farmers export a third of their soybeans. Iran was never a big buyer, but the war has escalated tensions across the Middle East, a region that buys American grain through intermediaries. Egypt, a major buyer of U.S. corn and wheat, has cut purchases by 30% since the conflict began, wary of supply chain disruptions and political pressure from Tehran.
"Every time a missile flies over the Strait of Hormuz, my grain prices drop a nickel," says Hendrickson. "I don't care who's president. I care about the board at the co-op."
The White House insists the war is necessary to protect American interests. But at the Adel Co-op Elevator, the only thing protecting farmer interests is a government loan program that's keeping them afloat — barely.
The 'Golden Age' Mirage
Trump's 2024 campaign rallies were heavy on promises: lower taxes, fewer regulations, a trade deal that would make American agriculture the envy of the world. The tax cuts passed in 2025 included a provision for farm equipment depreciation, but farmers say it's not enough to offset the damage.
"He talks about a golden age like it's a light switch you can flip," says Mike Petersen, a sixth-generation farmer near Greene. "But you can't just declare prosperity. You have to grow it. And right now, we're shrinking."
Petersen points to the numbers: farm debt has climbed to a record $427 billion, according to the Federal Reserve. Bankruptcies in the Midwest are up 8% this year. Land values, once a farmer's retirement plan, have stalled. In some counties, they've fallen.
You can't just declare prosperity. You have to grow it.
The irony isn't lost on the farmers who voted for Trump twice, many by double-digit margins. "I'm not saying I regret it," says Koenig, who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020. "But I'm still waiting. We're all still waiting."
What Comes Next
The 2026 midterms are three months away. Democrats are already hammering Trump's farm record. But in Iowa, the Republican machine is still strong. Trump won the state by 8 points in 2024. Even now, many farmers blame China, Democrats, and the media for their troubles.
"The president is fighting for us," says Tom Hauge, a Trump supporter who grows soybeans near Denison. "You can't make an omelet without breaking some eggs."
But the eggs are getting expensive. Hauge says his break-even price for soybeans is $9.50 a bushel. The local elevator is offering $8.80. "I'm losing a dollar a bushel before I even pay for seed," he says.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's latest survey of agricultural credit conditions shows the worst outlook in a decade. Loan repayment rates are deteriorating. More farmers are carrying debt into their retirement years.
For Hendrickson, the decision is stark. "I've got two boys who want to take over the farm," he says. "I tell them to get a degree in something else. Anything else. This golden age? It's fool's gold."
He turns back to his shed, where the combine sits silent. Somewhere in Washington, a promise still echoes. But here in Adel, the only sound is the wind through withering corn stalks.
