The White House isn't admitting it, but the mask is slipping. On Monday, Donald Trump told reporters the US is “semi-negotiating” with Iran—a phrase so vague it could mean anything from back-channel whispers to a full-blown diplomatic dance. Meanwhile, Israel formally trashed a 15-point Gaza peace plan that Washington supposedly supports. Two crises, one message: this administration is winging it.
Let's start with Iran. Trump's own words: “We'll wait for economic pressure to mount.” Translation: we're going to keep strangling their economy and hope they crawl to the table. That's not strategy; that's a hostage negotiation where the hostage is the entire Middle East. The “maximum pressure” campaign has been running for years now. Sanctions have gutted Iran's oil exports, crippled its banking system, and sent its currency into a death spiral. And yet, the regime in Tehran is still standing, still enriching uranium, still funding proxies from Lebanon to Yemen.
The Ghost of Past Negotiations
History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. Remember the JCPOA? The 2015 nuclear deal that Trump himself trashed in 2018—calling it “the worst deal ever.” Now he's hinting at talks, but with what leverage? Economic pressure alone hasn't worked. The sanctions have made life miserable for ordinary Iranians, but they've also hardened the regime's resolve. Supreme Leader Khamenei has banned direct talks with Washington, calling them a “poisoned chalice.” And who can blame him? From Tehran's perspective, the US can't be trusted to honor any agreement. Trump pulled out of the deal once. Why would they believe he'll stick to a new one?
And it's not just Iran. Israel is openly defying the US on Gaza. The 15-point plan—brokered by Egypt, Qatar, and the UN—was supposed to be a framework for a ceasefire, hostage release, and a path to Palestinian statehood. Israel's cabinet rejected it outright. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called it “a reward for terrorism.” The US response? A muted statement urging “both sides to return to the table.” That's not leadership; that's a passenger in the car while the driver heads off a cliff.
Gaza: The Plan That Never Was
The plan itself wasn't perfect. It demanded an immediate ceasefire, the release of all hostages, and a timeline for Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. It also included provisions for a UN-supervised interim government and a reconstruction fund. But it left the thorniest issues—like the status of Jerusalem and the right of return for Palestinian refugees—for later. That was by design. Get the guns to stop first, then talk politics. Israel said no. And the US didn't push back.
“You can't have a foreign policy that's just a series of tweets and shrugs.”
This is the core problem. Trump's approach to the Middle East is transactional, impulsive, and often contradictory. He wants to be the peacemaker who ends wars, but he's unwilling to apply the kind of pressure needed to bring parties to the table. With Iran, he's relying on economic pain that hasn't changed behavior. With Israel, he's giving a green light to a far-right government that has no interest in a Palestinian state. The result is a policy that lurches from crisis to crisis, with no clear direction.
The Nuclear Clock Ticks
Meanwhile, the nuclear clock is ticking. Iran's atomic agency announced last month that it's now enriching uranium to 60% purity—a short technical step from weapons-grade. The IAEA's latest report says inspectors can't access key sites. Israel is threatening preemptive strikes. The US has re-deployed aircraft carriers to the Gulf. This is the kind of tinderbox that could ignite at any moment. And what's the American strategy? “Semi-negotiating.” What does that even mean?
It means the administration is trying to have it both ways: keep the pressure up, but keep the door open. But in diplomacy, as in poker, you can't straddle the line indefinitely. Eventually, you have to commit. The Iranians know the US is divided—the President on one side, the State Department on another, and the Pentagon somewhere in between. They'll exploit that. They already are.
A Leadership Vacuum
The situation is made worse by a broader leadership vacuum in Washington. The President is distracted by legal battles and a re-election campaign. The Secretary of State is publicly undermined. The National Security Advisor is a former general who's reportedly frustrated with the chaos. This is not the team that's going to pull off a historic nuclear breakthrough or broker Middle East peace.
And what about the rest of the world? The Europeans are fed up. They've kept the JCPOA alive on life support, but without US participation, it's meaningless. The Gulf states are hedging, courting Iran while staying in Washington's orbit. Russia and China are stepping into the vacuum, signing trade deals and military agreements with Tehran. Every day that the US waffles, its influence shrinks.
The Price of Paralysis
The consequences of this paralysis are already visible. In Gaza, the humanitarian catastrophe deepens. Aid groups estimate over 40,000 Palestinians have been killed since the conflict resumed. Hospitals are running on fumes. Children are dying of malnutrition. The peace plan was a lifeline, and Israel—with Washington's tacit approval—just threw it overboard.
In the Gulf, tankers are being hijacked, drones are being shot down, and sailors are being held. The US Navy is in a low-level shooting war that no one is talking about. The cost of inaction is not just political; it's human. And it's mounting.
The Art of the Half-Deal
Trump loves to talk about “the art of the deal.” But a deal requires two sides ready to deal. When you're “semi-negotiating” with one adversary and letting your closest ally run roughshod over your peace plan, you're not making deals—you're making chaos. The president seems to think that economic pressure will eventually bring Iran to its knees, but he's been saying that for years. It hasn't worked. Sanctions alone rarely do. They need to be part of a broader strategy that includes credible threats and genuine offers. This administration offers neither.
“When a superpower sends mixed signals, it doesn't create leverage—it creates vacuums.”
Vacuums get filled. By Russia. By China. By Hezbollah. By whoever is willing to act. The US is losing the Middle East not because it's weak, but because it's aimless. There's a difference between strategic patience and strategic paralysis. This looks a lot like the latter.
A Wasted Lever
The irony is that the US holds all the cards. Iran's economy is a wreck. Its people are protesting against the regime. Its military is stretched thin by proxy wars. A smart diplomat could use this leverage to force real concessions—not just on nuclear enrichment, but on regional behavior. But that requires a coherent policy, consistent messaging, and a willingness to put your weight behind a plan. Instead, we get “semi-negotiating.”
Israel, too, is dependent on American military aid to the tune of $3.8 billion a year. A president with any backbone could say, “If you want our money, you'll accept a ceasefire.” That doesn't happen. Instead, the US abstains at the UN, vetoes resolutions, and sends conflicting signals to its own allies. It's no wonder Netanyahu thinks he can get away with murder—he's been given every reason to believe it.
The Verdict
So here's the bottom line: The United States is semi-doing a lot of things these days. Semi-negotiating with Iran. Semi-supporting peace in Gaza. Semi-leading the free world. And it's working about as well as you'd expect. The Middle East is more dangerous than it's been in decades, and the Trump administration is playing a game of diplomatic roulette with lives at stake.
This isn't strategy. It's improvisation. And improvisation is a terrible way to run foreign policy.
The next few months will tell us whether Trump can turn his “semi” into something real. Or whether we're just watching a slow-motion car crash that will take the whole region down with it.
